Tuesday 12 April 2016

Last post sounds for (Oz)Biota

I was hoping for a name change....but one that came with a takeover and some cash back.

All those Directors have had months to dream up a future path, and this is it.

And since I can't fit the new name into the blog title, this will be the last post.

This company should become someone's MBA case study - how Australian scientists made one of the most important therapeutic discoveries of the 20th century and how Australian businessmen trashed it in the marketplace.

As for the future?. No mention of LANI, and I expect this name change is partly designed to bury it. I presume changing the name is intended to fool fund managers who sunk capital into Biota.

Vapendavir might succeed in trials, but I have serious doubts it will get past FDA at the clinical advisory stage, especially without a rapid diagnostic. Any side effect of note will also bury it (like plecoranil).

The RSV drug has better prospects but its still very very early in its development, and being pushed pretty fast.

And the genital wart drug has a pretty small market and they overpaid.

Thanks if you read and responded. Good luck if you're long Avirogen.





Tuesday 16 February 2016

FDA

With the announcement of FDA fast track status for the RSV compound, we know that BTA are talking to the FDA.

If so, then I wonder why they haven't announced the outcome of discussions with FDA about LANI, as they announced they would over a year ago?

For them to extract not a single $ for the LANI compound is ridiculous. Note that even Biocryst sold their much inferior flu compound to CSL.

Tuesday 17 November 2015

Broadfin might be behind the recent changes

because they have increased their holdings to almost 10%, and because they have an activist style. The threat of open warfare was probably averted: they got 2 board members and a CFO.

Broadfin probably got their extra shares from Baker Bros, who have sold out of BOTA (at a major loss). So have RA, but I think Krensavage picked up their shares. So, some rationalisation at the upper end of the register to balance the disparate small (Aussie) end.

I notice Mr. Plumb had a significant vote registered against him for re-election in the AGM, and I need to presume he is holding out to control the large cashbox that is BOTA.

Maybe Broadfin will find out what is happening with the LANI ROW rights for us. Or why the company wants to raise $25 million more at any price.

The only value in BOTA is the cash and the LANI rights.

I think that at this point we probably have to put our faith in Broadfin, rather than the management and its aligned board, to represent shareholder interests. This might mean more activism, if the new board members and executive are isolated.

The main problem I see is that many major healthcare institutional funds have exited BOTA's register. They are unlikely to rejoin the company any time soon, especially if the majority of the current management and Board are mostly intact, so it's hard to see where the share price increase will come from.

The only solution to that problem is to sell the company. And that needs to happen before the cash is drained.


Saturday 3 October 2015

25 million dollar capital raising

are these guys for real?

the distributors' deal allow them to sell those shares anyway they want - including on market!!! The fact they are using these guys and these methods would suggest that they may have burnt their bridges with hedge funds and reputable brokers.

this is the opposite of an on market share buyback. Like a giant put option placed by the company on its own shares.

It might be some kind of bizarre insurance policy to cover their salaries in the event any, or all, of their trials flop. What is an extra 25 million meant to do otherwise? So, rather than those trials producing some much needed upward price tension, we will have no share price rise into those top line reports due to the dilution and the fact that the distributors will sell into any strength for their 3% commission.

Raising cash into this weakened market for BOTA is a complete joke, and especially when they have spent a year boasting of their healthy cash balance.

sadly, i think they have completely crossed the line into penny dreadful territory.

I cannot believe the major shareholders are allowing this.

I wish someone would take them over.






Thursday 1 October 2015

cash burn doesn't hurt everyone

Biota Pharmaceuticals, Inc. releases salary data. CEO sees compensation rise 110%


Biota Pharmaceuticals, Inc. just filed its annual proxy statement, which details the salary information of its key executives. In 2015, the company's CEO made 1,479,427.The table is included below:
Name and Principal Position
Year
Salary
($)
Bonus
($)
Stock
Awards
($)
(1)
Option
Awards
($)
(1)
All Other
Compensation
($)
Total
($)
Joseph M. Patti (3)
2015
477,000 431,250 797,098 32,829 (4) 1,479,427
President, Chief Executive Officer and Director
2014
408,000 120,156 149,375 25,995 (4) 703,526
2013
255,385 37,500 291,660 853,596 17,244 (4) 1,455,385
Russell H. Plumb (2)
2015
318,750 172,500 98,000 30,080 (5) 878,080
Executive Chairman and Director
2014
525,000 192,250 239,000 28,256 (5) 984,506
2013
335,192 60,000 583,321 1,365,753 19,431 (5) 2,363,697
The above information was disclosed in a filing to the SEC.


Wednesday 23 September 2015

Board changes

Well, one or several of the major shareholders have flexed their muscle and appointed 2 new Board members and asked Mr. Fox to resign. They are both biotech execs and board members and although they appear to be bona fide, increasing the size of this particular company's Board is nuts. The two new members don't give control, as the current members and executive members were all selected by Mr. Plumb.

Incidentally, Mr. Plumb sold a parcel of shares just before these changes were announced. And, he managed to sell them for 40 cents above the market price -lucky guy.

The lack of news on LANI becomes more noticeable. How it is possible to let this compound slip away is just beyond comprehension. Another northen hemisphere winter trial season passes, another year less patent life.

So, they pay 17 million for a antiviral gel Phase 1 tested on a couple of dozen patients in a deal done in a matter of months, while a compound like LANI has sat for over a year.